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Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia

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Reyenga, P. J., Howden, S. M., Meinke, H. and Hall, W. B. (2001) Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia. Environment International, 27 (2-3). pp. 195-200.

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Article Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-4120(01)00082-4


Crop production is likely to change in the future as a result of global changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and climate. APSIM, a cropping system model, was used to investigate the potential impact of these changes on the distribution of cropping along an environmental transect in south Australia. The effects of several global change scenarios were studied, including: (1) historical climate and CO2 levels, (2) historic climate with elevated CO2 (700 ppm), (3) warmer climate (+2.4°C) +700 ppm CO2, (4) drier climate (-15% summer, -20% winter rainfall) +2.4°C + 700 ppm CO2, (5) wetter climate (+ 10% summer rainfall) + 2.4°C + 700 ppm CO2 and (6) most likely climate changes (+ 1.8°C, -8% annual rainfall) + 700 ppm CO2. Based on an analysis of the current cropping boundary, a criterion of 1 t/ha was used to assess potential changes in the boundary under global change. Under most scenarios, the cropping boundary moved northwards with a further 240,000 ha potentially being available for cropping. The exception was the reduced rainfall scenario (4), which resulted in a small retreat of cropping from its current extent. However, the impact of this scenario may only be small (in the order of 10,000-20,000 ha reduction in cropping area). Increases in CO2 levels over the current climate record have resulted in small but significant increases in simulated yields. Model limitations are discussed. © 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type:Article
Business groups:Animal Science
Keywords:Australia South Australia Triticum aestivum Carbon dioxide Climate change Computer simulation Earth atmosphere Rain Environmental gradients crop production environmental gradient greenhouse effect wheat article climate controlled study crop environmental impact assessment priority journal productivity seasonal variation summer temperature winter Crops Landuse
Subjects:Agriculture > Agriculture (General) > Agriculture and the environment
Agriculture > Agriculture (General) > Agricultural meteorology. Crops and climate
Agriculture > Agriculture (General) > Methods and systems of culture. Cropping systems
Plant culture > Field crops > Wheat
Agriculture > By region or country > Australia
Live Archive:17 Mar 2022 03:47
Last Modified:17 Mar 2022 03:47

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