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On tactical crop management using seasonal climate forecasts and simulation modelling - A case study for wheat

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Meinke, H. and Stone, R. C. (1997) On tactical crop management using seasonal climate forecasts and simulation modelling - A case study for wheat. Scientia Agricola, 54 (Specia). pp. 121-129.


Article Link: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-90161997000300014


The El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon strongly influences rainfall distribution around the world. Using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) allows a probabilistic forecast of future rainfall that can be useful to managers of agricultural systems. Using wheat as an example, we show in this study how the SOI phase system, when combined with a cropping systems simulation capability, can be used operationally to Improve tactical crop management and hence increase farm profits and/or decrease production risks. We show the validity of the approach for two contrasting locations, namely Dalby in Northern Australian and Piracicaba in Brazil At Dalby, highest median yields were achieved following a rapidly rising SOI phase in April/May and lowest median yields following a consistently negative phase. Conversely, highest median yields at Piracicaba followed a near zero April/May phase and lowest median yields when the phase was consistently positive. We show how tactical management options can range from crop or cultivar choice to nitrogen management and marketing of the future wheat crop. © 1997, Scientia Agricola. All rights reserved.

Item Type:Article
Business groups:Crop and Food Science
Keywords:Climatic variability Crop and systems modelling Crop production forecasts
Subjects:Science > Statistics > Simulation modelling
Agriculture > Agriculture (General) > Agriculture and the environment
Agriculture > Agriculture (General) > Agricultural meteorology. Crops and climate
Agriculture > Agriculture (General) > Methods and systems of culture. Cropping systems
Agriculture > Agriculture (General) > Agricultural conservation
Live Archive:24 Nov 2021 04:36
Last Modified:24 Nov 2021 04:36

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