Modelling the spread and control of African swine fever in domestic and feral pigs

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) represents a significant threat to the Australian pork sector and the economy in general. Estimates of the economic damages from a large multi-state outbreak of ASF in Australia exceed $A2 billion. ASF outbreaks are widespread and increasing in number in Asia and Europe. Although ASF is not present in Australia, detections of ASF viral fragments in undeclared pork products intercepted at the Australian border and the recent spread of the disease to neighbouring Papua New Guinea demonstrate the significance of the threat.
The AADIS model (Bradhurst et al., 2015), simulates the spread and control of contagious emergency animal diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease. The ability to evaluate different outbreak scenarios in time and space, and trial various control measures, assists the development of animal health policy.
This project expanded the AADIS modelling framework to simulate the potential spread and control of ASF in Queensland domestic and feral pig populations. Of particular interest was the epidemiological interface between domestic and feral pigs and the potential role of ASF-infectious feral pig carcasses in transmission.
The upgraded model will provide a useful decision support tool to assist with preparedness and planning for ASF outbreaks.
The report provides a literature review on ASF, feral pigs in Australia, and ASF decision support tools. Case studies on the spread and control of ASF in domestic and feral pigs demonstrate the functionality of the new model. Queensland was selected as the test case study area due to the wide distribution and high numbers of feral pigs and the availability of local expertise and data from Biosecurity Queensland, Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Australian Pork Limited and SunPork Group Pty Ltd. The model was parameterised from the literature review and expert opinion that incorporated local knowledge of Australian production systems and environmental conditions. Note that the model is only parameterised for Queensland and will be scaled up to a national model through Biosecurity Innovation Program project 182021.