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Application of a model to assess aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

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Chauhan, Y. S., Wright, G.C., Rachaputi, R.C.N., Holzworth, D., Broome, A., Krosch, S. and Robertson, M.J. (2010) Application of a model to assess aflatoxin risk in peanuts. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 148 (3). pp. 341-351.

PDF (Application of a model to assess aflatoxin risk in peanuts)

Article Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S002185961000002X

Publisher URL: http://www.cambridge.org


When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

Item Type:Article
Business groups:Crop and Food Science
Additional Information:© The State of Queensland, Australia
Keywords:Drought stressed peanuts; aspergillus flavus; soil temperature; water activity; contamination; simulation; apsim; management; fungicide; systems.
Subjects:Plant culture > Fruit and fruit culture > Nuts
Plant pests and diseases > Individual or types of plants or trees
Science > Statistics > Simulation modelling
Live Archive:08 Sep 2010 02:06
Last Modified:19 Sep 2022 04:40

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