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Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

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Chauhan, Y.S., Wright, G.C. and Rachaputi, N.C. (2008) Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 48 (3). pp. 358-366.

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Article Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/EA06101

Publisher URL: http://www.publish.csiro.au/


Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.

Item Type:Article
Corporate Creators:Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation (DEEDI), Agri-Science, Crop and Food Science, Plant Science
Business groups:Crop and Food Science
Additional Information:© CSIRO.
Keywords:Zea mays L.
Subjects:Science > Botany > Cryptogams
Plant pests and diseases > Individual or types of plants or trees > Corn. Maize
Agriculture > Agriculture (General) > Agricultural meteorology. Crops and climate
Science > Statistics > Simulation modelling
Live Archive:29 Jan 2009 05:33
Last Modified:03 Sep 2021 16:43

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