A regional commodity forecasting system for major crops in Australia

Abstract

Queensland Department of Primary Industries has developed a regional commodity forecasting system, which integrates a shire-based stress-index wheat model with seasonal climate forecasts based on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It allows the examination of the likelihood of exceeding the long-term median shire yield associated with different season types at the beginning of the cropping season. This system is now run operationally for Queensland by updating the projection each month based on the actual rainfall that has occurred and any change in the ENSO phase from month to month. Although this system was principally designed to inform government in Queensland of any areas that might be more likely to experience poor crops in any year it also serves as a regional commodity forecasting system. The information generated provides an alert for exceptional circumstance issues associated with potential drought in Queensland. However, anecdotal information received from marketing agencies based on their experience with the 2000 regional wheat outlook showed that using this seasonal crop forecasting system in their decision-making processes could add value to their current approaches. Possible decisions to be taken when the outlook is for “likely to be drier (wetter) than normal” are, for instance, forward buying (selling) of grain or shifting of resources from good yielding areas to poor yielding areas.