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Survival of Hendra Virus in the Environment: Modelling the Effect of Temperature

Scanlan, J. C. and Kung, N. Y. and Selleck, P. W. and Field, H. E. (2015) Survival of Hendra Virus in the Environment: Modelling the Effect of Temperature. EcoHealth, 12 (1). pp. 121-130.

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Article Link(s): http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10393-014-0920-4

Abstract

Hendra virus (HeV), a highly pathogenic zoonotic paramyxovirus recently emerged from bats, is a major concern to the horse industry in Australia. Previous research has shown that higher temperatures led to lower virus survival rates in the laboratory. We develop a model of survival of HeV in the environment as influenced by temperature. We used 20 years of daily temperature at six locations spanning the geographic range of reported HeV incidents to simulate the temporal and spatial impacts of temperature on HeV survival. At any location, simulated virus survival was greater in winter than in summer, and in any month of the year, survival was higher in higher latitudes. At any location, year-to-year variation in virus survival 24 h post-excretion was substantial and was as large as the difference between locations. Survival was higher in microhabitats with lower than ambient temperature, and when environmental exposure was shorter. The within-year pattern of virus survival mirrored the cumulative within-year occurrence of reported HeV cases, although there were no overall differences in survival in HeV case years and non-case years. The model examines the effect of temperature in isolation; actual virus survivability will reflect the effect of additional environmental factors

Item Type:Article
Business groups:Biosecurity Queensland
Keywords:Simulation model Virus survival Hendra virus
Subjects:Veterinary medicine > Veterinary virology
Veterinary medicine > Communicable diseases of animals (General)
Deposited On:13 Jul 2015 02:48
Last Modified:13 Jul 2015 02:48

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