Login | Create Account (DAF staff only)

Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Queensland The Cotton Industry

White, Neil and Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Cockfield, Geoff and Power, Brendan (2012) Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Queensland The Cotton Industry. Project Report. Qld Dept of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. (Unpublished)

[img]
Preview
PDF (Final report)
2MB

Abstract

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is often perceived as a solution to
changes in water availability that have occurred within southern Australia as a result of changes to
government policy in response to and exacerbated by climate change. This report examines the likely
private, social and community costs and benefits associated with the establishment of a cotton industry in
the Burdekin.
The research undertaken covers three spatial scales by modelling the response of cotton and to climate
change at the crop and farm scale and linking this to regional scale modelling of the economy. Modelling
crop growth as either a standalone crop or as part of a farm enterprise provides the clearest picture of
how yields and water use will be affected under climate change. The alternative to this is to undertake very
costly trials in environmental chambers. For this reason it is critical that funding for model development
especially for crops being crop in novel environments be seen as a high priority for climate change and
adaptation studies.
Crop level simulations not only provide information on how the crop responds to climate change, they also
illustrate that that these responses are the result of complex interactions and cannot necessarily be derived
from the climate information alone. These simulations showed that climate change would lead to decreased
cotton yields in 2030 and 2050 without the affect of CO2 fertilisation. Without CO2 fertilisation, yields
would be decreased by 3.2% and 17.8%. Including CO2 fertilisation increased yields initially by 5.9%, but
these were reduced by 3.6% in 2050. This still represents a major offset and at least ameliorates the impact
of climate change on yield. To cope with the decreased in-crop rainfall (4.5% by 2030 and 15.8% in 2050)
and an initial increase in evapotranspiration of 2% in 2030 and

Item Type:Monograph (Project Report)
Funders:Australian Dept of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
Business groups:Horticulture and Forestry Science
Subjects:Agriculture > Agriculture (General) > Agricultural economics
Agriculture > Agriculture (General) > Farm economics. Farm management. Agricultural mathematics
Deposited On:29 Apr 2013 04:54
Last Modified:08 Jun 2015 16:00

Repository Staff Only: item control page