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Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Stanaway, M.A. and Reeves, R. and Mengersen, K.L. (2011) Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal. Ecological Modelling, 222 (19). pp. 3531-3540.

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Article Link(s): http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.08.013

Organisation URL: http://deedi.qld.gov.au/
Publisher URL: http://www.elsevier.com/

Abstract

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Item Type:Article
Business groups:Biosecurity Queensland
Additional Information:© 2011 Elsevier B.V.
Keywords:Invasive species; Aleurodicus dispersus; gravity model; human assisted; dispersal; hazard functions.
Subjects:Science > Invasive Species > Modelling
Plant pests and diseases > Pest control and treatment of diseases. Plant protection > Inspection. Quarantine
Science > Statistics > Simulation modelling
Science > Entomology
Deposited On:15 Nov 2011 23:08
Last Modified:05 Dec 2011 03:03

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