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Using a process-based model, ParopSys, to predict the impact of climate change on the eucalypt plantation pest Paropsis atomaria.

Lawson , S.A. (2009) Using a process-based model, ParopSys, to predict the impact of climate change on the eucalypt plantation pest Paropsis atomaria. In: Proceedings of the Biennial Conference of the Institute of Foresters of Australia. Caloundra, Queensland, 6 - 10 September. Institute of Foresters of Australia, pp. 256-262.

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Publisher URL: http://www.forestry.org.au

Abstract

The eucalypt leaf beetle, Paropsis atomaria Olivier, is an increasingly important pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical eastern Australia. A process-based model, ParopSys, was developed using DYMEXTM and was found to accurately predict the beetle populations. Climate change scenarios within the latest Australian climate model forecast range were run in ParopSys at three locations to predict changes in beetle performance.

Relative population peaks of early generations did not change but shifted to earlier in the season. Temperature increases of 1.0 to 1.5 ºC or greater predicted an extra generation of adults at Gympie and Canberra, but not for Lowmead, where increased populations of late season adults were observed under all scenarios. Furthermore, an additional generation of late-larval stages was predicted at temperature increases of greater than 1.0 ºC at Lowmead. Management strategies to address these changes are discussed, as are requirements to improve the predictive capacity of the model.

Item Type:Book Section
Business groups:Agri-Science, Horticulture and Forestry Science
Additional Information:© Institute of Foresters of Australia (IFA)
Keywords:Paropsis; eucalypt pest; climate change; plantation.
Subjects:Plant pests and diseases
Forestry
Science > Entomology
Deposited On:15 Aug 2011 07:05
Last Modified:05 Sep 2011 02:44

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