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Development of a model based on Bayesian networks to estimate the probability of sheep lice presence at shearing

Horton, B.J. and Evans, D.L. and James, P.J. and Campbell, N.J. (2009) Development of a model based on Bayesian networks to estimate the probability of sheep lice presence at shearing. Animal Production Science, 49 (1). pp. 48-55.

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Article Link(s): http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/EA07179

Publisher URL: http://www.publish.csiro.au

Abstract

This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

Item Type:Article
Corporate Creators:Animal Science
Additional Information:© CSIRO.
Keywords:New South Wales; Bovicola ovis; Damalinia ovis; biting lice; wool; prevalence; quality; spread; flocks.
Subjects:Animal culture > Sheep > Wool production
Veterinary medicine > Veterinary parasitology
Science > Statistics > Statistical data analysis
Science > Statistics > Simulation modelling
Deposited On:14 Apr 2009 06:55
Last Modified:08 Jun 2011 06:25

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